Periodicals

Periodicals is the new home for:

Nowcast: Semantic Analysis of Economic Activity Based on the Beige Book

The Fed’s Beige Book covers current economic activity. Tellusant converts it into a quantitative nowcast.

Nowcast: U.S. Recession Probability Six Months Out

Building on Ben Bernanke’s recession probability model, we created an improvement using exactly the same the data. Bernanke and the Fed uses a P controller, we use a P.I.D controller. The improvement is large.

E-commerce Trends

View our quarterly analysis of trends in U.S. e-commerce relative to total retail. Based on quarterly FRED ECOMPCTSA data.