Periodicals

Periodicals is the new home for:

Nowcast: Sentiment Analysis of Economic Activity Based on the Beige Book

The Fed’s Beige Book, Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, covers current economic activity for the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Tellusant converts it into a quantitative nowcast. Sesqui-monthly.

Nowcast: U.S. Recession Probability Nine Months Out

Building on Ben Bernanke’s recession probability model, we created an improvement using exactly the same the data. Bernanke and the Fed uses a P controller, we use a P.I.D controller. The improvement is large. Daily.

E-commerce Trends

View our quarterly analysis of trends in U.S. e-commerce relative to total retail. Based on quarterly FRED ECOMPCTSA data. Quarterly.