Nowcasts & Ongoing Analyses
These are models Tellusant updates and publishes on a regular, year in and year out. Some of them are daily.
Economic Sentiment Tool
Link actived Monday, April 13. Currently found here,
Nowcast: U.S. Recession Probability Nine Months Out
Building on Ben Bernanke’s recession probability model, we created an improvement using exactly the same the data. Bernanke and the Fed uses a P controller, we use a P.I.D controller. The improvement is large. Daily.
Nowcast: Sentiment Analysis of Economic Activity Based on the Beige Book
The Fed’s Beige Book, Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, covers current economic activity for the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Tellusant converts it into a quantitative nowcast. Sesqui-monthly.
E-commerce Trends
View our quarterly analysis of trends in U.S. e-commerce relative to total retail. Based on quarterly FRED ECOMPCTSA data. Quarterly.
Source: Tellusant, Inc.