Retrospective Comparison of Our Fed Beige Book Nowcast and Actual GDP Growth

As you look at our Beige Book summaries, you may ask: “does the Beige Book score correlate with actual GDP growth (reported a few months later)?”

It does. The correlation is a remarkably high 0.80. This means that we know what the current situation is well ahead of GDP reporting. That is, our method reflects a true nowcast.

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