Federal Reserve Beige Book Nowcasts
The Beige Book covers current economic activity. It is published sesqui-monthly (every 1 1/2 month). It gives a qualitative snapshot of what is currently happening in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It is thus a nowcast.
The Beige Book is useful for, among others, CEOs and management teams who want to quickly assess where the economy is at presently.
We compute a composite score for each of the 12 districts based on the wording in the report using LLM techniques, then sum the scores weighted by the GDP of each district.
We have published these nowcasts since June 2015 on LinkedIn. The new series published here starts in October 2025. The LinkedIn series can still be found there.
November 26, 2025
The November 2025 report continues to show significant weakness for the sixth period in a row. It ranks 77th of the 84 periods we have analyzed since beginning of 2016. Discounting covid, June 2025 is the worst).
Only three district show economic expansion:
- Richmond
- Boston
- Chicago
- Cleveland
Three show contraction:
- Dallas
- Kansas City
- New York
- Philapelphia
Four are flat.
Dallas is particularly concerning since the district has done well, or very well, for 5 straight years (40 periods).
Tariffs and erratic government policies are likely causes of the poor performance.